Sunday, October 4, 2009

Why is Iran so contentious?

I agree that Iran seeks to become a nuclear power. However, I think it is quite natural, inevitable and in any case not a geopolitical disaster, writes analyst Immanuel Valerstin.

The American political right wing and Israel believe that Iran has always obmanjivao to deceive and now and therefore must be harshly punished. Are we therefore at the threshold of new sanctions - by the United States or Israel with the tacit approval of the United States? I do not think so. I think that everything that happens is a huge bluff, and all for different reasons.

Let's start from Iran. I've always been right hand agrees with the U.S. and Israel that Iran seeks to become a nuclear power. My opinion differs from that in their opinion, it is quite natural, inevitable and in any case not a geopolitical disaster.

Nuclear power as neighbors

From the standpoint of Iran in the neighborhood of three nuclear powers - Israel, Pakistan and India, which not only have not signed the agreement on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, but have these weapons and in large quantities. However, none of these countries is not accused of "violating the norms of the international community."

So, ask in Tehran, was elected precisely why Iran? Unlike the three countries and Iran signed an agreement on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and has not violated any of its provisions. Despite this, the accused is due to much smaller violations of international norms of these countries. Inasio President Luiz Lula da Silva said that Brazil also enrich uranium and to consider that there is nothing bad in that it does and Iran.

Why is President Barack Obama just now said that Iran and is building another plant (the Godfather), although known for a while? He says he first wanted to be absolutely sure of the accuracy of secret services.

Propaganda and reality

However, it is clear that the president attacks the right target for reform of health insurance and the alleged reluctance to send more troops to Afghanistan. Taking strong attitude towards Iran on protecting the right flank.

The same could be said for Iran. President Ahmadinejad has also some problems on the inner plane. Sharp attitude towards the West, helping him to use the national feelings, especially if the West forced to be sharp.

Russia and China have always claimed that severe sanctions were counterproductive, but do not want to go too far in confronting the United States. So will most likely continue to be slow and ambiguous.

The military action is concerned, consider the following: the United States are faced with a request to significantly increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. Given the situation in the country who will support the U.S. military operation against Iran? And Israel, regardless of their wishes and fears, will not be given the necessary approval for overflight.

And where are we after all that? The world is in a stalemate. Many words and little action. Is that what Ahmadinejad wants? Probably. Will the U.S. and Israel right to condemn? Probably. Predsedik Can Obama do anything to change the situation? I do not see what. Propaganda is not the same as reality.

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